Data Points - Nothing Shocking
The Commerce Department said this morning that the US Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% for the second quarter of 2005 (this on the heels of a 3.8% annualized rate for the first quarter). And USA Today online had a really dumb headline about it, declaring "GDP flat". I guess maybe the headline writer thought it was flat because it had been unrevised from the previous Q2 estimate.
I heard a couple of finance industry economists yesterday projecting, without a great deal of conviction in their voices, GDP growth for 2006 in the 3.5% - 4% range. We shall see, but with interest rates rising across the curve, energy prices biting everybody in the wallet pocket, and that all-important American consumer beginning to back off a bit, durables notwithstanding, it certainly doesn't seem a sure bet. A cold winter with record heating prices is just one torpedo that could sink that kind of growth.
Yesterday, Durable Goods orders showed some strength and today, jobless claims backed off a smidge from their post-Katrina highs, though some people, workers included, are still spooked by this morning's report.
Next week, I hope to have some year-to-date asset class returns in celebration of the end of the quarter, as well as a summary of where economies in different regions of the globe are said to be heading.