The One Percenters
One percent is a very popular number for economists who are projecting a GDP slowdown. A recent note from a regional Fed office carried a calculation that gasoline prices, made higher though circumstances both pre- and post-Katrina, would effectively shave one percent of US annual GDP growth in the near term.
About a month ago, I read a note from another economist who had calculated that the rise in crude oil prices (which are, of course, not the same as gasoline prices, though crude prices provide a significant input to gasoline prices) already sustained through the course of the year would, you guessed it, shave one percent off of annual US GDP growth.
Interestingly, I saw the same economist the other day on one of CNBC's worst shows (I know, how do you even distinguish?) claiming that Katrina would shave one percent from US GDP growth.
As whatever remaining hatches there are are battened down against Hurrican Rita, now expected to blossom into a Category 4 hurricane Wednesday afternoon, one wonders just how all of these one percents overlap. Yes, a Venn diagram would be helpful.